The Astonishing Scoring Streak Fuels Villa's Unlikely Push for Glory
Just eight weeks prior that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his displays were an indicator or the reason for the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. When the England international curled home his second to restore Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard proposition to resolve. History, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have accumulated.
As per Opta, twice all season have Villa had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a club which has put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – but right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their star man to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they have to face in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.