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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.