Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
